Published research this week lands in a striking place: the dominant view is that US Treasury prices have further to fall, with 10-year and 30-year yields likely to stay elevated or push higher.
Four reinforcing forces show up across the research consensus. First, fiscal math — with US deficits running north of 6% of GDP, the market has to absorb ever-larger Treasury issuance, and analysts argue that only happens at higher yields. Second, a global supply wave from AI and data-center buildouts, energy transition, and defense spending is crowding bond markets. Third, researchers point to a rising term premium — investors demanding more compensation for holding long duration as foreign central bank buying fades. Fourth, Treasury buyback programs are widely characterized as too small to change the trend, offering at best fleeting relief.
The bearish tone is sharpest at the long end. A contrarian thread favors 3–5 year Treasuries, arguing that softer inflation and a steady Fed support that part of the curve. One camp also flags investment-grade credit as attractive on a risk-adjusted basis, while cautioning that hyperscaler bond spreads may widen into 2027.