Published research this week is overwhelmingly bearish on US Treasury prices, with most analysts expecting yields across the curve to stay elevated or push higher.
Researchers point to a stack of reinforcing pressures. On supply: record corporate investment-grade issuance, relentless long-dated government debt, and widening US deficits with no credible fix. On demand: the buyer base has shifted from price-insensitive foreign central banks to more price-sensitive domestic investors, while Japan and China have turned net sellers. A recurring theme across the published consensus is term premium — investors demanding more compensation to hold long-duration bonds given fiscal uncertainty and mixed Fed messaging. Elevated oil prices, AI-driven capital competition, and Middle East tensions add to the mix.
The 30Y yield, already at 19-year highs above 5.30%, attracts the most bearish views. One analytic thread argues the 10Y rise is almost entirely real-yield driven and sees tactical upside toward 5% before mean reversion.
A contrarian camp disagrees: they expect yields to fall sharply once a downturn forces the Fed to cut, and favor adding duration on yield spikes — a horizon call, not a break from the higher-for-longer thesis.