Published research this week leans heavily toward higher US Treasury yields, with only a small minority calling for near-term relief.
The bearish case rests on two pillars. First, fiscal: multiple research notes argue that persistent large deficits, heavy Treasury supply, and a structural supply-demand imbalance are the primary engines pushing yields up. Second, inflation: a broad consensus of analysts points to post-globalization dynamics, energy shocks, and sticky core prices keeping term premiums elevated. A subset of recent work goes further, arguing robust nominal GDP growth and eroding US fiscal credibility could drive the 10-year toward a 5–6% handle. On the front end, some researchers still see the 2-year and Fed Funds biased higher, with at least one more hike in their base case.
The dissent is real but narrow. A contrarian thread argues the 10-year could ease near-term on softer inflation prints. One published view reconciles both camps: higher yields now, drifting toward ~4.25% as Fed cuts come into view late next year. It's a horizon split, not a fundamental one.