Published research this week is coalescing around a clear message on US Treasuries: long-end yields are heading higher, and the curve is set to steepen — even as a tactical camp sees near-term relief at the front end.
The bearish case rests on supply. Multiple research shops point to record Treasury issuance and a projected $2.1 trillion FY2026 deficit as forcing term premium higher, especially on 10s and 30s. One thread adds that war-related spending helped push the 30-year to its highest level since 2001. Another recurring argument: the buyer base has shifted to price-sensitive investors who only clear auctions at elevated yields.
The counterview, held by a separate camp of analysts, is narrower in scope — softer CPI, PPI and payrolls data reduce the odds of a September Fed hike and could support a modest rally in the 2-year and belly over the coming weeks. Notably, one desk frames this as a relief bounce inside a structural downtrend, ultimately expecting 10-year yields to break above 4.75%.
On credit, some recently published views flag widening BBB spreads and stress in AI mega-cap bonds, with Nvidia paper already 15–20bps wider.