Published research this week is broadly leaning one way on US Treasuries: yields have further to rise, especially at the long end.
The dominant view across recent research pieces sees structural forces — persistent deficits, tariff-related fiscal slippage, deglobalization, AI capex, and tight labor — keeping inflation and term premium elevated. One fair-value model pegs the 10-year around 5.8%. Others target 4.75–5% near-term, with the 30-year seen pushing through 5.5%. Several rates desks favor curve steepeners, expecting the long end to underperform. Long-duration bond ETFs are flagged as likely to keep falling.
A contrarian thread argues the 10-year could instead be capped, on the view that Treasury officials will lean toward yield-curve management to head off a sovereign funding scare. Near-term risks flagged include upcoming auctions and possible Japanese selling of Treasuries to defend the yen.
The one bond-bullish exception in the published views: the 2-year, where softer payrolls and cooler core CPI could pull Fed pricing lower — conditional on the next CPI print not surprising hot.