Published research this week leans heavily toward higher US Treasury yields, with the strongest bearish bond-price bias at the long end and increasingly at the front end too.
The case researchers make: sticky inflation, a structural deficit demanding ever-larger Treasury issuance, and fading demand from foreign official buyers like Japan and China. One camp of analysts flags $2 trillion annual deficits and bond vigilante dynamics as pushing the 10Y and 30Y higher, while others tie the move to still-strong real GDP and elevated core inflation reinforcing a hawkish Fed. A recurring point: rising real yields and political noise around Fed independence could be a near-term catalyst.
A contrarian thread argues the opposite — that Treasury Secretary Bessent's engineered scarcity of duration supply and expanded repo facilities are structurally suppressing yields, and that 5.3% front-end yields are an attractive entry ahead of eventual Fed cuts.
The published consensus also highlights short-maturity US credit as compelling, and notes the bill share of marketable debt could climb toward 24–25% by end-2028.