Published research is lining up behind a bearish view on US bonds: long-end Treasury yields are seen staying elevated or grinding higher, credit spreads under widening pressure, and the yield curve biased steeper.
Analysts point to a familiar cluster of forces — heavy US debt issuance, weaker Fed communication credibility after Chair Warsh dropped forward guidance, and structural selling from foreign holders including Japan. One recent thread frames the steepening as deliberate policy design: letting the long end tighten financial conditions while the short end stays anchored. Notably, the research consensus argues the yield rise is driven by real yields, not inflation fears, with core CPI expected to drift toward ~2.3%.
A common view holds that the 35-year bond bull market is over, with 5% on the 10Y cited as a plausible near-term level. On credit, researchers flag AI-related debt supply — Amazon, Google, and especially Oracle — as a growing source of investor indigestion, with some spreads on AI-heavy issuers pricing near junk-equivalent levels.
Munis, per one published view, remain pressured by record issuance into year-end.