Published research on US bonds is split — and the split is mostly about time horizon, not direction.
The dominant view in recent research is that long-end Treasury yields are heading higher. Analysts point to heavy Treasury issuance, sticky inflation, questions about Fed credibility, and the risk that Japanese investors sell US bonds to bring capital home. A separate strand of research highlights a structural driver: massive corporate bond issuance tied to AI and data-center buildouts.
But a tactical camp reads it differently. After the soft July jobs report, several published views argue front-end yields (the 2-year in particular) should fall as expectations for further Fed hikes get priced out.
On the long end, some researchers favor curve steepeners. On credit, the consensus in recent notes is that investment-grade spreads drift wider on supply — though fundamentals still look resilient. One contrarian thread flags 30-year inflation-protected Treasuries near 3% real yields as unusually attractive.
The real disagreement: is the Fed's next move a cut, or another hike?