Published research this week leans decisively bearish on US Treasury prices — meaning most analysts see yields grinding higher from here.
The core argument, echoed across multiple research desks, rests on sticky inflation, roughly $2 trillion annual fiscal deficits, and a Fed that markets increasingly suspect is behind the curve. One camp goes further, arguing the Fed should actually be hiking into 2026-2027. Several analysts also flag Japan's yen defense as a mechanical Treasury seller: when Tokyo intervenes, it sells Treasuries to raise dollars, pushing US yields up.
At the long end, one bearish thread targets the 10Y approaching 6% and is short 30Y futures; another flags the 30Y breaching 5.2% — a level unseen since 2007 — as confirmation of sustained pressure. A separate view expects bull steepening: short rates easing as the Fed holds, long rates drifting higher.
On corporate credit, researchers highlight AI data center and hyperscaler bonds as a specific pain point, with spreads already 110bps wider than non-AI high yield amid heavy capex-driven supply.
A contrarian thread frames Treasuries as portfolio ballast — but only as a hedge if risk assets crack.