Published research this week overwhelmingly points to higher US Treasury yields across the curve, with the 30Y already at multi-decade highs and pressure extending to the 10Y and front end.
The dominant view among analysts ties this to the Fed's posture under Chair Kevin Warsh: forward guidance abandoned, tolerance for a market-driven sell-off in long bonds, and no rate cuts on the near horizon. Several research desks argue the 30Y is anchored at or above 5.25%, pushed by deliberate Fed policy and heavy Treasury issuance. A structural thread adds that Japanese and other foreign capital rotating away from Treasuries, plus a quiet drift in the Fed's effective inflation tolerance toward 3%, keeps upward pressure alive well beyond this cycle.
The contrarian case, held by a smaller camp, is that another soft inflation print could trigger a yield rally — but it's explicitly data-contingent.
One clear bright spot in the published work: US corporate credit, where record foreign inflows (~$216bn year-to-date, up 32% versus any prior year through May) are cited as a price floor independent of sovereign volatility. Inflation-linked bonds are also flagged as useful insurance if inflation surprises higher.