US Treasury yields dominated the week, with published research broadly arguing the long end is heading higher — though a few late-week voices flagged the move may be overdone.
The 30-year hit a 19-year high above 5.2% after the FOMC held rates steady despite sticky core inflation, and several analyses framed the move as the bond market openly challenging the Fed's anti-inflation resolve. The 10-year drew calls toward 5%, citing weak auction demand, technical breakouts, fiscal deficits, AI-driven capital demand, and a higher term premium. Curve steepening was a recurring theme, tied to doubts about Fed credibility and thin forward guidance. Fed commentary suggested another hot CPI print could force tightening back onto the table.
Not all views aligned. One thread argued fiscal drag and plateauing AI capex should eventually pull long yields lower, and a separate note flagged long-duration Treasuries as deeply oversold heading into payrolls. Credit research warned high yield spreads look unusually tight, while AI-infrastructure debt spreads have already widened on capex-return concerns.