Published research this week is broadly pointing one way on US Treasuries: long-end yields are set to keep climbing, with the 10-year and 30-year drawing the most attention.
The consensus across recent analyst notes rests on three reinforcing forces. First, sticky inflation — from tariffs, energy shocks, and AI-driven demand — is keeping the Fed from signalling real easing. Second, researchers argue Fed credibility under Chair Warsh is being questioned, with the post-July FOMC steepening and a 19-year high in the 30-year yield read as warning signs. Third, structural pressures — rising term premia, quantitative tightening, ballooning federal debt, and AI investment needs — are cited as keeping yields elevated well beyond the cyclical inflation story.
Short-end views are more conditional: one camp sees scope for softer policy-rate expectations if inflation cools and the Fed stays on hold. And a contrarian thread suggests the 10-year could eventually drift lower on a multi-year horizon if growth slows and fiscal drag bites — but even those voices concede near-term momentum still favours higher yields.
On credit, some recently published views flag historically tight high-yield spreads as ripe for widening, and stress is already showing in AI infrastructure bonds.