Published research this week leans heavily toward higher US Treasury yields across the curve — bearish for bond prices — though a few contrarian takes complicate the picture.
The mainstream view from recent research points to persistent inflation, Fed policy risk, and structural fiscal pressures as the key drivers. Analysts note markets are pricing a roughly 38–40% chance of a hike at this week's FOMC, with a hike fully priced by September, keeping upward pressure on the 2-year. A separate strand of research emphasizes structural forces: widening deficits, a shrinking Fed balance sheet, waning foreign demand for Treasuries, and a rising term premium. One published warning flags that leveraged non-bank players could amplify sudden yield spikes.
Contrarian threads argue Treasuries still offer defensive value and positive carry in risk-off moments. One conditional view holds that if the Fed actually hikes, long-end yields could fall on lower inflation risk premium and growth headwinds — an event-anchored call, not a rejection of the broader structural trend.
On credit, several researchers expect investment-grade spreads to widen, flagging AI-related and data center issuance as vulnerabilities. TIPS look cheap to at least one camp.