Published research this week leans strongly toward higher US Treasury yields — across tactical, cyclical, and structural horizons — with only a small contrarian camp seeing near-term relief.
The bull case, as most analysts frame it, rests on reinforcing forces: large and structurally sticky US deficits, a Fed still posturing hawkishly (with markets pricing a non-trivial chance of a hike at the next meeting), above-target inflation partly driven by energy, and unprecedented capital demand tied to AI infrastructure — which some researchers argue is lifting equilibrium real rates. One strategic forecast sees the 10-year yield grinding to 4.85% by end-2028; another frames the 30-year holding above 5% as a structural repricing of sovereign risk.
A contrarian thread notes that the recent drop in oil has eased inflation risk premiums and could pull yields lower tactically — but only if oil stays subdued and geopolitics calm.
On credit, some views are constructive on investment-grade given strong demand, while others warn AI-related debt supply could eventually widen spreads.