Published research this week leans strongly toward higher US Treasury yields, especially at the long end — though a dissenting camp sees relief further out.
The bull case, as several research desks argue, rests on the Fed's "hawkish hold" keeping rates elevated while denting inflation credibility. Analysts also point to a structural supply-demand problem: record Treasury issuance, soft auction demand, persistent deficits, and heavy corporate debt issuance from AI hyperscalers are pushing yields up regardless of Fed signaling. Fading foreign demand adds another medium-term tailwind.
A contrarian thread reads the Fed's hold as modestly dovish and sees the 10Y drifting back to 3.75%–4% over a year — driven by slowing growth, not inflation.
On credit, the published consensus flags widening spreads in investment grade and specifically among AI-linked hyperscalers, where debt is surging but returns remain unproven. Oracle is singled out: its 5-year default-insurance cost has jumped from under 50bps to roughly 200bps, with researchers noting its rating and cash flow now look junk-adjacent.