Published research is lining up behind higher US Treasury yields in the near term, with an unusually broad bearish consensus on bond prices.
The main driver, according to most recent analysis, is oil-driven inflation reigniting fears that the Fed stays restrictive — or hikes again. One camp of rate strategists goes further, arguing the Fed could deliver another 75bp of tightening, far more than markets price. Others flag fiscal strain and heavy AI-related corporate debt issuance crowding out Treasury demand, keeping the 10Y and 30Y elevated. A parallel shift higher across the 2Y–30Y curve is the base case in several notes.
On credit, some recently published views see investment-grade spreads widening into year-end, especially in hyperscaler and AI-linked bonds where supply is heavy.
The lone contrarian thread is horizon-conditional: a strategic multi-year call that the 10Y drifts from ~4.71% back toward 4.50% and lower as inflation moderates and the Fed eventually eases — not a true disagreement, just a longer lens.