Published research is leaning heavily toward higher US Treasury yields across the 2Y, 10Y, and 30Y — which means lower bond prices. The dissenting views exist, but they're conditional.
The core argument from recent research: elevated oil prices and Middle East tensions are reviving inflation fears and pushing markets to re-price Fed rate expectations higher. One camp of analysts points to institutional outflows from long-dated bonds and debate over a higher neutral rate as lifting real yields. Others flag layered supply shocks — energy, tariffs, shipping — as reason yields may need to reset structurally higher, with 4.85% cited as a key tipping point on the 10Y. A separate strand ties near-term moves to rising odds of a September Fed hike.
On the long end, the published consensus highlights ballooning Treasury issuance — funding AI infrastructure and deficits — as keeping the 30Y under pressure, noting it has held above 5% for an extended stretch. The 2Y at 4.3% is described as elevated with no near-term reversal expected.
A contrarian thread argues the 5Y and 10Y could fall if the "war premium" fades or if disinflation lets the Fed cut on a 6–12 month view. But where horizons align, the weight of research favors higher yields.