Published research this week leans heavily toward higher US Treasury yields — but the consensus isn't unanimous.
Most analysts argue yields are pushing up across the curve. The reasons cited: sticky inflation from elevated oil prices tied to the US-Iran conflict, record Treasury issuance colliding with widening deficits, and rising compensation demanded for holding sovereign debt. One recent note points out the stress has already shown up in rates markets, with volatility gauges climbing and the 10-year yield touching a two-month high near 4.63%. Another flags that if the Fed shrinks its balance sheet by $600–700bn over 18 months and drops forward guidance, that alone could add 15–20 bps to the 10-year.
On credit, researchers see investment grade spreads widening into 2026 as heavy corporate issuance meets a growing sovereign risk premium.
The contrarian view: a minority thread argues renewed Fed balance sheet expansion will absorb supply foreign buyers are walking away from — capping yields rather than letting them run.