Published research is broadly leaning toward higher US Treasury yields across the curve, with the 10-year drawing the most bearish attention.
The common thread across recent analyst notes: sticky inflation, oil above $90 on Middle East tensions, a still-hot labor market, and solid growth are keeping the Fed on a tightening path. One camp of strategists highlights that markets are nearly fully pricing a Fed hike by October, with roughly 80% odds of another early next year. A separate base case calls for three 25bp hikes through year-end. A structural argument is also gaining traction in published notes — large federal deficits and heavy Treasury issuance are pushing up the term premium at the long end, while softer foreign demand (slower Japanese buying, possible EM reserve shifts) adds pressure.
In credit, a contrarian thread of recent research is constructive on US high yield, citing low defaults and healthy corporate balance sheets, while flagging widening investment-grade spreads as an early warning.
Notably, there's a genuine split within published views on the 10Y: some see yields grinding higher on inflation persistence; others expect them to fall over 3–6 months if growth cracks and the Fed pauses.