US bond research split sharply this week on where yields go next, with dovish and hawkish camps both firing.
Softer June CPI and PPI prints drove the first-half tone: multiple research desks flagged that 2Y and 10Y yields dropped as markets pared expectations for further Fed tightening, with some arguing real yields look statistically stretched and due to reverse lower. A parallel view held that contained breakevens and credibility around the 2% target should keep long-end yields drifting down.
But the published consensus shifted more hawkish later in the week. Several analysts argued sticky core inflation, resilient consumer spending, and Fed communications point to three or four more hikes through 2027 — with 2Y yields rebounding and front-end rates seen leading a curve flattening. Renewed geopolitical risk around Iran and firmer oil pushed 10Y yields back toward 4.6%, and one forecast sees the 10Y drifting to 4.85% by 2028.
On credit, researchers flagged wider BBB and tech IG spreads ahead as hyperscaler AI issuance floods the market.