US Treasuries stayed under pressure this week, with the bulk of published research arguing that "higher for longer" still has room to run.
Several analysts made the case that the 10-year yield will hug 4.5% and could test higher, pointing to sticky ~3% inflation, resilient growth, accommodative financial conditions, and a neutral rate closer to 4% than the FOMC's estimate. A recurring thread flagged eroding structural demand — Japan redirecting capital home, foreign central banks stepping back, and institutional investors running historically low fixed income allocations while rotating toward TIPS over nominals. Multiple notes pushed back on market pricing, arguing hikes rather than cuts are the bigger risk into year-end.
On credit, one view called IG and high yield spreads "way too tight" at ~260bps and likely to widen as issuance ramps up. A tactical thread saw scope for a bull-flattening rally later in the summer once the July FOMC and August refunding clear, and noted a soft CPI print could trigger a near-term retracement lower in yields.