Published research this week leans heavily toward higher US Treasury yields and wider credit spreads, with only a narrow dissenting camp arguing for a near-term price bounce.
The bearish-bond case rests on stacked pillars. Several analyst teams argue markets are underpricing further Fed tightening, pointing to sticky core inflation near 3%, resilient consumer spending, and a tight labor market. A structural thread of recent research goes further: fading foreign central bank demand, US issuance needs approaching $12 trillion, and geopolitical shifts (Europe rearming, BRICS diversifying away from the dollar) are framed as a durable supply-demand problem. One camp also notes that hawkish repricing under new Fed leadership has flipped expectations from cuts to two hikes by year-end.
On credit, the published consensus is that investment-grade spreads look far too tight versus history, with widening expected into late 2026 as issuance accelerates. High-yield near 260 bps is seen as similarly exposed if volatility returns.
The main dissent: a contrarian view expects a summer bond rally and bull-flattening if the Fed stays on hold and risk assets wobble.