Treasury yields are being pulled two ways, and published research this week is openly split on which force wins.
The dominant view among recently published analyses argues yields grind higher across the curve. Three drivers are cited: Middle East risk reigniting inflation fears, a hawkish repricing of the Fed after the June minutes, and still-resilient US growth with a tight jobs market. One tactical call sees the 10-year testing new highs.
A contrarian thread pushes back hard. These researchers argue nonfarm payrolls are misleading — the household survey shows actual job losses, and participation is flattering the unemployment rate. Their conclusion: the Fed stays on hold and yields drift lower.
The curve isn't moving as one. Some analysts see the 10-year stuck near 4.5% while the front end richens, with 2-year yields slipping below 4% as rate cuts get more likely into late next year. A separate note flags Meta's bonds trading like BBB credit despite an AA- rating, on AI capex concerns. Constructive views on US high yield (~7% carry) also appeared.