Published research this week leans heavily toward higher US Treasury yields across the curve, with the Fed more likely to hike than cut.
The dominant view among analysts: sticky core inflation and a resilient labor market keep the Fed hawkish. One widely circulated forecast sees three 25bp hikes through 2026, lifting the funds rate to 4.25–4.50%. Researchers also flag structural pressure on the long end — heavy Treasury issuance, a shrinking foreign buyer base, and elevated term premiums. One contrarian thread argues the 10-year should track nominal GDP toward roughly 6%.
On the curve, the published consensus expects a bear flattener, with short yields rising first. Several houses now peg both 2Y and 10Y at around 4.5% by end-2026, with some targets reaching 4.50–4.55% into early 2027.
A minority tactical view sees yields dipping near-term on softer data and lower oil. One cyclical dissent expects the 10Y to fall over 6–12 months if a late-cycle downturn forces easing.
On credit, views split: some analysts see investment-grade spreads tightening on strong nominal growth, others expect modest widening if hike bets build. TIPS with real yields above 2% are flagged as attractive inflation hedges.