Published research is leaning heavily toward higher US Treasury yields across the curve — but the near-term picture is messier, with tactical calls pointing the other way at both the front and long end.
The bear-bond case dominates. Most research notes this week point to sticky core inflation, a Fed that analysts now read as more hawkish than market pricing implies, heavy fiscal supply, and a new Fed chair whose lighter forward guidance is seen as amplifying front-end volatility. One published fair-value estimate puts the 10-year about 25–30bp above current levels with a 4.70% year-end target; another camp expects roughly 75bp of additional hikes beyond what markets price.
Credit views are more constructive. Several recent notes argue US high yield can still deliver solid total returns — citing ~7% yields, ~2% defaults, and resilient fundamentals — even as spreads widen modestly. A separate thread sees investment-grade tech spreads tightening on lighter second-half issuance.
A contrarian long-horizon view argues today's starting yields make Treasuries and TIPS attractive on a 3–5 year basis.