Published research this week leans bearish on US bonds and credit — but the debate is unusually live.
The consensus in recent analyst notes: Treasury yields drift higher and credit spreads widen from record-tight levels. Researchers point to loosening loan underwriting, stress building in private credit, and late-cycle dynamics as reasons high-yield and investment-grade spreads should widen over the next 6–12 months. On rates, one camp of analysts sees the 10-year yield pushed up by sticky inflation, a firm labour market, and a Fed leaning hawkish under its new chair — with AI-related capex adding to domestic demand.
A contrarian thread pushes back hard: margin compression, rising bankruptcies, and fading inflation will force the Fed to cut, not hike, dragging yields lower alongside softer energy prices and peaking tariff effects.
A few specific calls stand out in published notes: 2-year Treasuries flagged as a capital-preservation hideout while riskier credit reprices, and AI infrastructure bonds singled out as risky — chip and hardware cycles are far shorter than bond maturities.