Published research is lining up behind one call: US Treasury yields are headed higher across the curve, meaning bond prices fall — tactically, cyclically, and structurally.
The near-term driver is a hawkish Fed. Several research notes this week highlight futures markets now pricing roughly a 93% probability of a September hike and a second move by March 2027, following hawkish signals from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. One camp of analysts points to broad repricing for a more restrictive Fed as inflation lingers, with US yields pulling away from European peers.
Looking further out, a recurring argument in recently-published work frames this as a regime shift: widening US fiscal deficits, heavier Treasury supply, and the fading "safe-haven premium" on Treasuries are keeping real rates elevated for years. A related thread adds that softer foreign demand means yields must rise to clear the market.
The 10-year Treasury yield draws the most concentrated bearish-bond views. Researchers also flag downside for investment grade and high yield corporate bond prices on the same real-rate logic, while the 2-year has already hit a 16-month high. One conditional risk: if oil keeps inflation sticky, the pressure intensifies.