Published research this week leans heavily one way on US Treasuries: yields are headed higher, and bond prices lower. The lone caveat comes from a contrarian thread arguing bonds could rally if AI-driven growth disappoints.
The through-line is a more hawkish Fed. Several analyst notes flag that Chair Warsh stepping back from the dot plot adds policy uncertainty and keeps term premia elevated. One camp argues the Fed is leaning forcefully into its 2% inflation credibility, and that 2Y and 10Y yields typically reprice ahead of actual hikes — a pattern researchers see playing out now. Another view warns the AI capex boom and income tax cuts skew upcoming PCE data hot, which could push the 10Y higher still. Markets are reportedly pricing as many as two more hikes by year-end, with the curve compressing from roughly 80bps to 26bps and an implied ~85% probability of at least one hike.
The main dissent is tactical: a short-horizon technical call sees yields capped near-term on strong international carry demand — a timing disagreement, not a fundamental one.