US Treasury yields look set to grind higher across the curve, according to a strong majority of recently published research.
The dominant story: under Fed Chair Warsh, the FOMC has pivoted from cutting to hiking. Researchers note futures are pricing a roughly 100% chance of a hike by October, and Taylor-rule analysis circulating in published work points to a funds rate as high as 5%, with one camp arguing investors should stay positioned for higher front-end rates. Other recent analysis ties a projected climb in the 10-year yield toward 4.85% by late 2028 to a resilient US economy and a Fed Funds rate holding above neutral. A separate strand attributes the global long-end sell-off to energy-driven inflation expectations, higher term premia, and doubts about central bank reaction functions. The recent Iran-US MOU, one view adds, doesn't meaningfully cut inflation risk.
Not everyone agrees. A contrarian thread argues disinflation is underappreciated and front-end yields will fall, while another long-horizon view suggests Fed balance sheet shrinkage ultimately boosts Treasury demand and caps yields.