Published research this week is overwhelmingly bearish on US Treasury prices, with a near-consensus call that yields head higher across the curve — led by the front end.
The catalyst: a blowout May payrolls report with upward revisions. Multiple research notes argue this forces a sharp repricing of Fed expectations, with markets now pricing a full 25bp hike by year-end and close to 50bp by Q1 2027. One major house has formally shifted from a pause to a December hike call. A structural thread of analysis goes further, arguing the era of low inflation and QE is over and the 10-year yield could revisit 5%. Fiscal deficit concerns and a "two hikes behind the curve" framing reinforce the bear case.
On credit, some recently published views see spread compression opportunities in IG Financials, IG Consumer, and parts of high yield, while flagging IG Healthcare and BB high yield as vulnerable.
The contrarian view: one tactical thread argues Treasuries are near-term attractive on fragile growth and risk-asset pullback risk — a short-horizon call that doesn't dispute the structural direction.