Published research on US Treasuries is splitting hard along the time horizon — and the near-term winds favor a bounce in longer-dated bonds.
The tactical case, argued in several recent notes, is that softer oil has trimmed inflation risk and pulled the 10Y yield down to around 4.59%. One camp of analysts says yields need to break well below 4.5% on the 10Y and 5% on the 30Y to confirm the recent spike was a one-off.
The structural bear case, pushed by a separate thread of research, targets 10Y yields of 5.75%–6% by mid-2026, citing sovereign debt loads and AI-driven capital demand keeping inflation sticky. A hawkish middle-ground view sees the Fed on hold through 2026, with risks tilted toward a hike.
Maturity splits matter. Some recently-published views call the 30Y a potential top performer over 6–12 months on a growth scare. Others argue the 2Y and 7Y offer the best risk-adjusted value. On credit, researchers flag widening spreads in AI-hyperscaler debt. Municipal bonds are described as "screamingly cheap" versus Treasuries.