Published research this week leans bearish on US Treasury prices — meaning most analysts expect yields to stay high or push higher across maturities.
The shared logic, repeated across multiple research notes: sticky inflation above the Fed's 2% target, large fiscal deficits, heavy Treasury supply, and rising term premium at the long end. One camp frames today's yield environment as structural, reflecting a permanently weaker US fiscal picture than a decade ago. Others flag that skepticism toward quantitative easing inside the Fed — notably from Kevin Warsh — could push more supply onto private buyers.
On the long end, several research desks recommend curve steepeners (5s30s or 2s10s), arguing the 30Y faces the most supply and fiscal pressure. One analyst flags 5% on the 10Y as a danger zone for debt servicing given US debt-to-GDP above 125%.
The contrarian thread: a minority view sees the 10Y drifting toward roughly 4.05% by end-2026 if Fed cuts arrive as expected — a gradual cyclical decline, not a reversal.