Published research this week leans heavily one way on US Treasuries: prices down, yields up, with markets now pricing in the possibility of Fed hikes rather than cuts.
Analysts point to the same cluster of catalysts — the Iran conflict keeping oil bid, a hot April CPI print, and stronger-than-expected payrolls — forcing a sharp repricing of where rates ultimately settle. Several research notes flag the 30-year yield hitting levels last seen in 2007, while others highlight that the 2-year jumped after the April Fed statement and could move further if upcoming minutes read hawkish. A separate thread of recent analysis layers fiscal sustainability worries on top, and one structural argument points to foreign holders — Japan, China and others — selling Treasuries to raise dollars for expensive oil.
The 10-year is the most-cited short, with the long end seen as most exposed to inflation and geopolitics. On munis, one camp argues they're tactically vulnerable but strategically attractive near 20-year-high yields around 5.1%.
A contrarian view sees relief later — but only if a Middle East de-escalation or credible deficit plan arrives.