Published research is broadly bearish on US Treasury prices, with long-end yields at or near multi-year highs and selling pressure across the curve.
Researchers point to three reinforcing forces. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz is being framed as a structural energy-driven inflation shock keeping yields elevated. A separate strand of analysis highlights widening US deficits, fading foreign demand for Treasuries, and rising term premia as reasons yields can't revisit pre-COVID lows. And the published consensus is that the bar for Fed rate cuts has risen sharply — a contrarian thread even argues the next Fed move could be a hike.
On specifics, some recently-published views see the 2-year drifting to 3.90% by mid-2026 before easing in 2027, the 30-year reaching around 4.95%, and the 10-year targeting 4.8% on a technical breakout. One camp of analysts favors TIPS as a relative safe harbor. In credit, researchers flag weakness in investment-grade tech issuers loading up on AI capex and in PE-sponsored software loans, where sponsor support is no longer treated as a reliable backstop.