US Treasury yields surged this week as sticky inflation, oil-driven geopolitical risk, and fiscal anxiety pushed the bond market into a clear repricing.
The dominant thread in published research: the 10-year cleared 4.5% and the 30-year touched levels not seen in roughly two decades, with several analyses citing hotter CPI and PPI prints, an Iran-linked oil premium, and markets fully pricing out Fed cuts this year. One assessment put the odds of a 2026 hike near 60%; another warned yields could test 4.6% if inflation pressure persists. Bearish takes pointed to widening deficits, softer foreign demand, and a rising term premium as structural drivers.
Not everyone agreed. A contrarian strand argued long-duration Treasuries are oversold and would rally on any equity wobble or Middle East de-escalation, with one projection seeing the 10-year drifting toward 4.05% by year-end. Long TIPS near 2.7% real were flagged as an attractive entry. Fallen-angel high yield and agency MBS also drew constructive mentions.