Most published research is bearish on US Treasury prices in the near term — meaning yields stay high or push higher — with only a few voices calling for relief later.
The bear case, as laid out across recent research, rests on three pillars: oil-driven inflation pushing headline CPI toward or above 4%, widening fiscal deficits lifting the term premium, and a Fed more likely to hold or even hike than cut soon. One camp puts the odds of a year-end hike at 40%; another goes as high as 60%. A more contrarian thread frames the long end as an outright short, arguing policy support only delays repricing.
On the 10-year, several analysts see yields grinding toward 4.5–4.75%, with some flagging a move near 5% if growth holds up. The 30-year has already crossed 5%, which one strand of research calls a new regime.
The counterweight: a minority view argues yields are near a cyclical peak and the 10-year could drift back toward 4.05% by late 2026 as inflation cools and cuts arrive. One note also flags inflation-linked bonds as a stagflation hedge if Middle East supply risks persist.