Published research this week leans heavily toward higher US Treasury yields in the near term, with selective opportunities in corporate credit and a quieter strategic case for owning bonds again.
The bearish-price view rests on hot CPI and PPI data, Middle East-driven oil prices, and a hawkish repricing of Fed expectations. Several analyst camps note markets have added roughly 20 basis points of tightening, and a contrarian thread now floats the possibility of actual rate hikes — prediction-market odds have climbed to 31%. A break above 4.50% on the 10-year is widely flagged as the key level, with some researchers targeting 4.60–4.75% next. One tactical view sees 4.50% attracting dip-buyers as a short-term floor.
On the strategic side, one camp argues real yields are finally high enough that investors are "paid to be patient," reviving Treasuries — and TIPS specifically — as portfolio diversifiers. A structural note adds that slowing population growth should suppress the neutral rate over time.
In credit, researchers favor consumer cyclical high yield, fallen angels, and midstream energy, while flagging communications and broad tech high yield as structurally challenged.