Published research is leaning bearish on US Treasuries and dollar credit, with most analysts seeing yields drifting higher over the medium to long term — though a few tactical rally scenarios remain in play.
The structural case, argued by several research desks, is that two forces that held US yields down for decades are unwinding at once: foreign demand is fading as de-dollarization spreads, and the deflationary impulse from cheap Chinese and Mexican imports is reversing. Reports that China has directed reduced Treasury exposure reinforce this. One published view sees inflation risks skewed to the upside through 2026–2028, with rising debt-service costs squeezing productive spending.
Cyclically, multiple research threads point to near-term yield pressure from firm oil prices, strong payrolls, and a CPI print expected near 4% headline — keeping the Fed on hold. One event-driven framework argues a core CPI above 0.3% MoM would trigger a Treasury selloff, while an in-line print offers only a brief rally to sell into.
On investment-grade credit, views split: some analysts favor IG as a portfolio stabilizer, while a contrarian thread warns record AI-driven issuance from big tech could widen spreads over the coming year.