Published research on US Treasuries is leaning bearish on prices and bullish on yields, with most analysts arguing persistent inflation and a more hawkish Fed will keep bonds under pressure.
The bearish case, per the prevailing research consensus, rests on April CPI coming in hot, energy-driven inflation running above 3.8% with risk of 4%+, and futures markets now pricing odds of a Fed hike rather than cuts. Several research notes warn that if incoming Fed Chair Warsh accelerates quantitative tightening along Bank of England lines, the curve could steepen sharply. A recurring technical flag in the published work: 4.5% on the 10Y as a level whose breach would ripple through borrowing costs. The bearish tilt is most acute at the long end, where some analysts are adding shorts in the 30Y.
A contrarian thread argues current yields are attractive entry points — that the market is overpricing hike risk, especially at the 2Y, and that softening wages near 3.6% should eventually pull inflation and yields lower.
A real valuation disagreement, not just different horizons.