US bond research split sharply this week, with the published consensus tilting toward higher yields as oil, sticky inflation, and a more hawkish Fed tone dominated the conversation.
Several research notes argued the next leg for Treasury yields is up: persistent Core PCE, rising crude, and resilient jobs data have pushed analysts to favor being paid on the front end, with one house targeting 10-year yields near 4.5% by year-end and another projecting a drift toward 4.75% by 2028. Long-end strategists flagged the 30-year breaking above 5% and a bear-flattening 2s10s as signs of a regime shift. Breakevens near 2.5% were cited as evidence the TIPS market is rebasing inflation expectations higher, making inflation-protected bonds a favored hedge.
A contrarian thread pushed back: some researchers see recession risk pulling yields lower, with scenarios for the 10-year drifting toward 4.0% if oil softens and AI-driven disinflation holds. Fiscal slippage was flagged as a wildcard that could force yields higher regardless.