Two contrarian setups are getting attention in published research this week: long US Treasuries and unloved corners of private credit.
Researchers argue the 10-year Treasury has sold off too far, with yields around 4.2–4.3% leaving room to drift back toward 4.0%. In practical terms, that view implies TLT moving from roughly 86 to around 90. The catalyst is partly conditional — analysts in this camp suggest a de-escalation around Iran and oil could speed the move, and any equity wobble would add a further tailwind for bonds.
On private credit, a separate thread of recent research pushes back on the default-wave narrative. The published case: actual default rates remain low, credit spreads have not meaningfully widened, and many business development companies (BDCs) trade at steep discounts to net asset value — already pricing in losses the underlying data doesn't show.
The nuance these analysts flag: weaker BDCs remain exposed if credit conditions sharply deteriorate, so selectivity matters.