Published research is sharply split on US Treasuries — and the divide is mostly about time horizon.
The bearish camp dominates the near-to-medium term. Several recent research notes argue that sticky inflation, a resilient labour market, and a Fed in no rush to cut keep bond prices under pressure, even if Middle East tensions ease. One strategic forecast targets the 10-year yield at 4.75% by mid-2028, citing fiscal strain and rising term premia. Another sees yields approaching 4.5% by year-end, and a separate view is outright bearish on the 30-year, where yields above 5% suggest a bear-flattening regime.
A contrarian thread of longer-dated research disagrees. Some analysts expect material Fed cuts by end-2026, pulling the 10-year toward 4.05%. Others tie a bond rally to an eventual recession, or to a path toward 4% if oil falls and AI-driven disinflation takes hold.
On TIPS, the published consensus leans constructive as a hedge against near-term inflation risk.
Where horizons align, the weight of research still leans bearish on Treasury prices.