Treasuries: published research leans constructive, but the camp is split on where yields go next.
The dominant view across recent research argues US Treasuries and TIPS look attractive across the cycle, with yields drifting lower near term. The case rests on cooling inflation, a labour market that's resilient but not overheating, and a Fed that's delaying cuts rather than considering hikes. Several analysts argue central banks won't tighten in response to energy-driven inflation, making today's elevated yields a good entry point. Others go further, suggesting markets are underpricing how aggressive the eventual easing cycle could be if hiring weakens.
A contrarian thread pushes back. One strand of recent research expects yields to drift modestly higher if the economy stays resilient and inflation expectations stay anchored. A more hawkish published view — an outlier in the current discussion — anticipates an outright Fed hike before year-end, citing Core PCE still above target and oil-price pressure.
On TIPS specifically, the published case highlights real yields near 2% as historically attractive, with markets underpricing inflation volatility and supply risks.