Published oil research is leaning bullish into year-end, with the dominant view tying crude's next leg to geopolitics around the Strait of Hormuz.
Most researchers surveyed this week argue higher prices are likely while Iran risks, shipping attacks, and the chance of renewed hostilities around the US midterms stay live. One analytical thread highlights tight refined-product supply (diesel near $200) and a forward curve repricing higher as quick supply normalization looks less plausible. Offsets flagged in the same work: recovering Iraqi exports, sanctioned tankers rejoining legal trade, and Gulf flows back near 80% of pre-war levels.
On Brent, the consensus in recent notes sees roughly $108–111.50, with one technical read pointing to $114–117 if $110 breaks and support near $104.50. A contrarian published view expects declines on de-escalation. On WTI, trend-followers stay bullish while another camp calls the market extremely overbought and flags a possible 5–7% single-day reversal.
A longer-horizon strand argues EV adoption erodes demand over roughly a decade — a structural call that doesn't contradict the near-term bullish tactical setup.