Published oil research is overwhelmingly bullish into year-end — but the same analysts expect prices to cool materially from 2027 as supply recovers.
The near-term case rests on the US-Iran conflict. Researchers point out that Strait of Hormuz transits are running at just 68–70% of pre-war levels, vessel attacks hit a record 12 in the week to October 16, and global inventories sit roughly 507 million barrels below pre-conflict levels. Several published views flag that a war premium is firmly embedded, with reports of larger US strikes being prepared after early-November elections. One camp highlights Saudi Arabia's Yanbu terminal and the East-West pipeline as live escalation risks that could echo September's rally above $105.
On Brent specifically, baseline published forecasts cluster near $100–$110 for Q4 2026, with escalation scenarios reaching $129–$150. Most analysts see prices easing toward $70–$88 by late 2027 — but only if the conflict winds down.
A contrarian thread notes the futures curve is steeply backwardated, with oil near $70 a year out, and argues each post-war rally has been smaller than the last.