Oil research is split by time horizon, not conviction. Near-term published views lean bullish on Strait of Hormuz disruption, ship attacks, and strikes on Russian refineries — while 2027 forecasts from a wider research consensus lean lower, assuming flows eventually normalize.
Bullish arguments cite US crude stock draws, Gulf exports running below government-implied levels, and Brent calls around $108–110 with technical support near $105.50. The tightest corner of the complex, according to recently published work, is diesel: tied to Iran-related disruption, with one analytical camp warning fuel tightness could persist into mid-2027, compounded by Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refining capacity. Distillates are cited near $200/bbl.
The bearish camp argues Hormuz flows normalize, supply improves, and Brent reverts toward $60–70, with some 2027 base cases near $74–76 in a ceasefire scenario. One published scenario frames the range starkly: $74 if a ceasefire holds, $130 if war continues — a $56 spread hinging entirely on negotiations.
Refined products and tanker rates remain the stress points to watch.