Oil stayed the dominant macro story this week, with researchers almost unanimous that Brent is "sticky and elevated" as long as Middle East risk persists.
Multiple analysts flagged Brent holding above $100 on Strait of Hormuz disruption, Houthi attacks on Saudi facilities, depleted inventories and a persistent risk premium. Near-term targets of $107–$120 were floated, with escalation scenarios pointing to $130–$150 if the Strait were fully blockaded. One published forecast sees Brent averaging $101 in Q4 2026 before easing to roughly $77 by late 2027 as Gulf supply normalizes — and as low as $65 under an early US–Iran deal.
Refined products look tighter than crude. Diesel was cited near $200/bbl, with the squeeze expected to persist into late 2027 on refinery bottlenecks, Russian capacity damage and freight/insurance costs. US onshore diesel was flagged as the rare bright spot thanks to cheap domestic, Canadian and Venezuelan feedstock.
A contrarian thread argued supply-driven energy spikes historically mean-revert within 1–2 years as demand destruction kicks in — a reminder the elevated strip is not guaranteed.