Published research is lining up firmly bullish on crude, with Middle East conflict risk now the dominant price driver across both Brent and WTI.
The common thread in recent third-party analysis: a geopolitical risk premium that won't fade. Analysts point to attacks on Saudi Aramco infrastructure, heavier naval activity around the Strait of Hormuz, disrupted shipping, and higher freight costs as live supply threats. Several recently published views have prices hovering near or above $100 a barrel, with one note arguing the conflict is lasting longer than markets priced in. Another camp sees risks skewed toward further escalation if US military involvement deepens.
On specific levels, one published forecast pencils in Brent averaging around $87 through 2026 in a base case of persistent disruption, with a Brent-WTI spread of $10–11 attributed to Hormuz risk. A contrarian thread notes a one-day pullback signal from recent price action, but frames the broader uptrend as intact.
A separate bullish flag on diesel ties potential Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries to refined-product supply risk.