Oil research is sharply split right now, and the Middle East is the swing factor.
The bullish camp in recently published research points to Strait of Hormuz disruptions, historically low inventories, tanker shortages, and refining bottlenecks. Physical Brent prices are trading well above futures, and diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel are under acute pressure. Several analysts expect the diesel squeeze to persist into late 2027.
A contrarian thread argues the opposite near-term: demand forecasts for 2026–2027 have been downgraded, no fresh attacks have hit energy infrastructure, and speculative positioning has turned. One tracked read notes managed money has cut net long positions in WTI and Brent for three straight weeks, now at a two-month low.
On a longer horizon, the published consensus leans toward Brent gradually easing to the high $70s per barrel by 2027 as Gulf supply recovers — but only if tensions don't deepen. Scenario work floats $150 on escalation or $65 on a US–Iran thaw.
The real debate: geopolitical supply risk versus softening demand.