Oil research skews bullish into 2026 — but it's a bet on geopolitics, not fundamentals.
The published consensus argues Brent and WTI stay elevated because supply is physically tight: the US/Iran standoff, Strait of Hormuz disruptions, and Houthi strikes on Saudi infrastructure are keeping a risk premium baked into crude. One recently published forecast lifts Brent by $10/bbl across the curve, targeting $90 in Q4 2026 before easing to $80 by mid-2027. Technically oriented analysts see WTI holding a bullish structure above $86, with upside targets north of $105 if support holds. Another thread frames an $88 floor as the natural level in a "higher for longer" macro regime.
On refined products, researchers broadly expect diesel and gasoline crack spreads to stay firm, with G7 reserve releases viewed as a short-term stabiliser rather than a structural shift.
The dissent is conditional, not directional: a contrarian camp argues prices fall toward $70 by 2027 if Middle East tensions genuinely resolve — a condition most other published views don't assume.